Brunch Boxing’s Complete Guide To Olympic Boxing

With the return of boxing to the summer Olympics (and, tragically, the last instillation of boxing at the Olympic Games), I decided to compile my predictions and thoughts for the seven men’s divisions which are being competed in. I would like to clarify that I have not decided to publish my views on the women’s divisions not out of disrespect to the athletes competing in women’s boxing, but simply because I am not familiar with women’s amateur boxing and don’t think I could do women athletes proper justice. I would also like to add that writing out my predictions for the Olympics took longer than expected, and so there may be some picks here that actually lost early (for instance, Italy’s Aziz-Abbes Mouhiidine was my gold medal pick for the heavyweight division, but lost a highly controversial decision in the first round). Still, in the interest of transparency, I did not change my picks as originally stated. I haven’t decided to make my analysis totally comprehensive, I will not be picking each individual fight, but rather will be focusing on a few top fighters that I think will be the focal points of talent and completion in the tournament and the most likely to medal. Finally, I do not claim to be prescient, Olympic boxing is an institution known for bad judging and reffing and I cannot claim to know how every fight will go down given the long standing issue of corruption and incompetence in the sport. With all that taken into account, below are my official predictions for male boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics.
 
112 lbs (Flyweight)
Gold: Hasanboy Dusmatov (Uzbekistan)
Silver: Billal Bennama (France)
Bronze: Patrick Chinyemba (Zambia), Junior Alcantara (Dominican Republic)
 
Flyweight is arguably the most talent rich division in the sport, but the favorites to make the finals (Uzbekistan’s Hasanboy Dusmatov and France’s Billal Bennama) are both heavy favorites for good reason. Despite being small for the division, Dusmatov has consistently dominated in international tournaments, making him arguably the best pound for pound amateur in the world. Dusmatov should blow past Juan Manuel Lopez Jr (son of Puerto Rican boxing star Juan Manuel “JuanMa” Lopez) in the round of 16 without much difficulty. After this Dusmatov will likely face the rangy Kazakh Saken Bibossinov in the quarter finals. This will be extremely competitive (they’ve fought three times so far, with Dusmatov leading the trilogy 2-1), but I suspect Dusmatov’s aggressive pressure and punch variety will find its way past Bibossinov’s lanky mantis style once again. Dusmatov will then likely face one of two very talented fighters: Zambia’s Patrick Chinyemba or India’s Amit Panghal, who will meet each other in the round of 16. Historically, Panghal’s well measured, sharp boxing style has proven to be Dusmatov’s kryptonite, the two are 2-2 with each other, and there’s a strong argument that Panghal should be up in their series. However, Panghal has also faced Chinyemba in the 2022 Commonwealth Games finals, and while he won, I did not agree with the result and felt that Chinyemba’s superior hand speed, reach, active jab and well timed counters should have gotten him the nod. As such, I predict Dusmatov will face and beat Chinyemba in the semi finals in a fight where Chinyemba simply won’t be able to keep the Uzbek buzzsaw off of him but will certainly give Dusmatov a lot of work with his speed and counters.
 
Bennama’s half of the bracket is much easier than Dusmatov’s. His toughest fight prior to Dusmatov will be against the American Roscoe Hill in the round of 16. Hill, a George Foreman protege, is a funky, hands low outboxer who uses his size and athleticism to bait his opponents into eating jabs and counters while he moves. While I had some doubts about Hill early on, his recent win over Colombian Olympic silver medalist Yuberjen Martinez really clarified to me how much he’s grown and developed, fighting with greater defensive responsibility and creativity than before. Bennama has some stylistic similarities to Hill: both are lanky, rangy outfighters that like to keep their opponents on the end of their punches, but Bennama is more responsible defensively, more experienced, better on the inside and more offensively varied. I suspect we will be in store for a tactical, boring affair between the two, with Bennama outboxing Hill (even if the fight is close, French judging should guarantee a Bennama win). Bennama will then likely face the Cuban Alejandro Claro in the quarter finals. Claro is talented, and has a win against Bennama from early June of this year, but that was a fight in Cuba which frankly he shouldn’t have won. Bennama would have won that fight under impartial judging, and will definitely win in France. I predict Bennama will then face the Dominican Junior Alcantara in the semi finals. Alcantara is physically gifted, but young and very raw, swinging wide, fighting with a stance that’s too wide and moving too much. Bennama should outbox Alcantara without too much difficulty in the semi finals (and frankly, even if it isn’t Alcantara in the semis I don’t see anybody in his end of the bracket that will give Bennama much of a challenge). This will set up a Bennama/Dusmatov rematch for gold. The first time they fought, at the 2023 World Championship finals, Dusmatov stopped Bennama in one round. While I don’t think Bennama will be stopped in one round this time, I don’t expect him to win either, short of bad judging (which is certainly possible), giving Dusmatov his second Olympic gold.
 
126 lbs (Featherweight):
Gold: Abdumalik Khalokov (Uzbekistan)
Silver: Jahmal Harvey (USA)
Bronze: Javier Ibanez (Bulgaria), Carlo Paalam (Philippines)
 
When I said above that the flyweight division is arguably the most talent rich division in the tournament, the reason I said it was arguable was because featherweight may have a challenge to that claim. At the top of the bracket is the opportunity in the quarterfinals for a classic Kazakh-Uzbek derby between Kazakhstan’s Makhmud Sabyrkhan and Uzbekistan’s Abdumalik Khalokov. Put bluntly, both Sabyrkhan and Khalokov are athletic freaks with a lot of similarities: switch hitting, brilliant footwork, fluid upper body movement, impressive hand speed, creative out-of-nowhere punches. Sabyrkhan, however, is smaller and more aggressive, which should play well into Khalokov’s smooth outside fighting and give Khalokov the decision over Sabyrkhan. Also in this end of the bracket is the Philippines 2020 Flyweight silver medalist Carlo Paalam, who should find his way to the semi-finals against Khalokov. Khalokov and Paalam have faced each other once before, with Khalokov cruising to an easy decision win, one which I expect he will repeat in the semi finals against Paalam this time around.
 
On the other end of the bracket, American Jahmal Harvey and Brazilian Luiz Oliveira will face each other in the round of 16. Harvey and Oliveira have faced each other five times before, with Harvey leading the series 3-2. However, in my estimation the series isn’t quite as competitive as the 3-2 split indicates, and I expect Harvey to beat Oliveira like he did the last time they fought, where Harvey outclassed Oliveira, out moving and countering him for three rounds straight. This will set Harvey up to face Cuba’s Saidel Horta in the quarter finals, a rematch of their 2023 face off, which Harvey won. While their last fight was extremely close, Harvey’s superior hand speed, counters, switch hitting and stab jab to the body allowed him to outfight the crafty Horta, and I expect we will see a similar result this time around. This will set up Harvey to face the Cuban-Bulgarian Javier Ibanez in the semi final. Ibanez is a talented fighter, but I don’t think he can beat Harvey either. Ibanez’ pressure coming forward can be basic at times and while he can fight at mid range and on the back foot fairly well, I don’t see him beating Harvey there, who will be the faster man on the trigger and will be more focused. This will set up maybe the best final of the entire games: Harvey vs Khalokov. While I consider Harvey/Khalokov a 50-50 fight, I must lean towards picking Khalokov to win the gold. Harvey keeps his lead hand too low sometimes, and also has a bad habit of rushing in to initiate offense. While these are habits he can get away with when he’s the better athlete, unfortunately he won’t be the superior athlete against Khalokov, and he certainly won’t be the bigger or more experienced man. Harvey’s best shot will be to try to walk Khalokov down and outwork him, but I think Khalokov’s slick, unpredictable outboxing style will see him beat Harvey at range, frustrating him to a decision win where Harvey will have his moments, but Khalokov will be the clear winner of the featherweight gold medal.
 
140 lbs (Light Welterweight):
Gold: Ruslan Abdullaev (Uzbekistan)
Silver: Erislandy Alvarez (Cuba)
Bronze: Sofiane Oumiha (France), Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbayuly (Kazakhstan)
 
The 140 pound division is probably the least interesting of the divisions, but still may have some surprises in store for viewers. Frenchman and gold medal favorite Sofiane Oumiha should have a clear path to the semi finals. On the other end of his bracket is the Uzbek Ruslan Abdullaev, whose bracket includes Tajikistan’s Bakhodur Usmonov, Bulgaria’s Radoslav Rosenov and Canada’s Wyatt Sanford. All three are tough challenges, but I don’t think any of them will be good enough to beat Abdullaev in the quarterfinals. Oumiha and Abdullaev will then face each other in the semi finals. On paper, Oumiha should be the favorite: he’s a lengthy hands down boxer who moves well, has diverse punch selection and some slickness to him and he’ll be the hometown hero as the pride of French boxing. However, I think Abdullaev will shock the world here and win a hotly contested decision where Abdullaev’s dynamite left hook and volume of flurries will be the difference.
 
On the other end of the bracket, Cuba’s Erislandy Alvarez should face Thailand’s Bunjong Sinsiri in quarter finals and Kazakhstan’s Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbayuly should face Georgia’s Lasha Guruli in the round of 16. Sinsiri is a cagey southpaw who works behind a pawing jab to land accurate straight shots while frustrating his opponent with slickness and the occasional tie up. Alvarez, on the other hand, is your archetypical athletic Cuban: slick, explosive, excellent timing, offensively varied and able to pick shots out of thin air. Alvarez won’t blow Sinsiri out, but I do expect his youth and general athletic advantage will get him a clear decision win. Bazarbayuly versus Guruli will be another interesting fight, and it will test the best asset that Bazarbayuly and Guruli have in common: their straight hands (a straight left in the case of Bazarbayuly and a straight right in the case of Guruli). Guruli will be the better mover and the bigger man, but Bazarbayuly will have the hand speed advantage and, in my estimation, is more willing to brawl. Bazarbayuly almost reminds the viewer of an early Pacquiao, willing to take punishment and be outmatched technically to land an explosive straight left, and after seeing Guruli eat straight lefts from Russia’s Targkhan Idigov, I suspect Bazarbayuly will win a fight that starts competitive and becomes increasingly one sided over time. This will set Bazarbayuly up to face Alvarez in the semi finals, a rematch of their fight from earlier this year. The first time they fought, Alvarez out thought the aggressive Bazarbayuly, winning the orthodox-southpaw foot positioning battle, and interrupting his rhythm by tying him up, pushing him back and walking him down on the inside in between well timed counters. With only a few months since their last fight, I don’t see much growth from Bazarbayuly that will lead me to pick against Alvarez, who will win and face Abdullaev in the final. The final will be another great Cuban-Uzbek clash, and one I expect Abdullaev will edge out closely. I expect a lot of very exciting exchanges between the two: Abdullaev will have some challenge consistently navigating the distance with Alvarez, who will win the jab battle, but Alvarez’s reliance on athleticism will lead him to exchanges against Abdullaev where Abdullaev’s volume, hand speed and combinations will see him out hustle Alvarez. Alvarez will not be as successful in tying Abdullaev up as he is accustomed to, as Abdullaev has already shown competence in positional fighting and inside fighting against Armenia’s Hovhannes Bachkov. The result will probably be a fight that could go either way, but I suspect that when all is said and done, it will be Abdullaev who will have his hand raised with a gold medal clasped in it.
 
157 lbs (Light Middleweight):
Gold: Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev (Uzbekistan)
Silver: Sewon Okazawa (Japan)
Bronze: Marco Verde (Mexico), Omari Jones (USA)
 
The ultra competitive light middleweight division promises chaos, unpredictability, upsets and exciting prospects for the pros. The current favorite for gold is Kazakhstan’s Aslanbek Shymbergenov, who won gold at the 2023 World Championships. I don’t mean to downplay Shymbergenov, he’s tall, rangy, mobile and boxes at distance well, but he’s inconsistent and has a weakness to athletic fighters like Ukraine’s Yuriy Zakharieiev and was recently knocked out by Mexico’s Jose Miguel Barrego. My sense with Shymbergenov is that while he certainly has a good chance to medal or even win, I think he’s the favorite mostly because of his 2023 World Amateur championship gold and oddsmakers haven’t seen much of him otherwise. I expect Shymbergenov will face Japan’s Sewon Okazawa in the round of 16 and lose. Shymbergenov and Okazawa fought each other in 2022 and Okazawa won a decision he likely didn’t deserve, but I think Okazawa will be a bit too quick and creative for Shymbergenov this time and get a rightful decision. Okazawa will then probably face the Russo-Serb Vakhid Abbasov and outbox him like he did the last time they fought in 2021. Okazawa will then face either India’s Nishant Dev or Mexico’s Marco Verde (who should face each other in the quarterfinals) in the semifinals. Picking between Dev and Verde is tough. Dev beat Verde back in 2021 in an ugly fight, but this time around I like Verdes chances. I think Verde has grown and matured more than Dev and will win another tactical battle of southpaws where Verde’s right hook will be the difference maker. This will set up a semi final between Okazawa and Verde, which I expect Okazawa will win by being the faster, more mobile man with the more varied punch arsenal, setting him up for the final.
 
On the other end of the bracket is a shark tank. France’s Makan Traore should beat Ireland’s Aidan Walsh in the round of 32 and face the Armenian-Dane Nikolai Terteryan in the round of 16. Traore is a tough fighter with a good work rate and reach, but he also swings wide and lacks speed and sophistication to his game. This will probably make him an easy match up for Terteryan, whose heavy handed catch and shoot style will see him landing counters to a clear win against the Frenchman. This will set up an unpredictable quarter finals match up between Terteryan and Uzbekistan’s Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev. While both men have a very good chance at victory, I think Muydinkhujaev’s superior athleticism, punch variety, pinpoint counters and distance measurement will see him beat Terteryan to the punch and keep the fight where he wants it to a decision win. After this Muydinkhujaev will likely face America’s Omari Jones in the semi finals. Jones is a lengthy outfighter who likes to fight behind snappy jabs and straights he throws from a hands down low position. While I don’t expect Muydinkhujaev to blow Jones out, I don’t see much which Jones does better than Muydinkhujaev and expect Muydinkhujaev to beat him fairly clearly. This will set up a Muydinkhujaev/Okazawa rematch in the finals. Okazawa last beat Muydinkhujaev in 2021 by out moving and out thinking the young Uzbek. This time around, Muydinkhujaev will be more experienced, more physically developed and will know how to deal with the Japanese fighters movement and speed reliant style, winning a high level, competitive match to win gold.
 
176 lbs (Light Heavyweight):
Gold: Arlen Lopez (Cuba)
Silver: Tuohetaerbiake Tanglatihan (China)
Bronze: Oleksandr Khyzhniak (Ukraine), Nurbek Oralbay (Kazakhstan)
 
As far as the Light Heavyweight tournament goes this year, I feel confident in my picks up through the semi finals. Ukraine’s Oleksandr Khyzhniak, the favorite for gold, will have a fairly easy route up until the semi finals, where I expect he will face Cuba’s Arlen Lopez. Lopez faces a stiff challenge in the quarter finals against the winner between Uzbekistan’s Turabek Khabibullaev and the Philippines Eumir Felix Marcial. I expect Marcial will beat Khabibullaev, who is solid but uninspiring, then face Lopez. Marcial has a dynamic straight left hand, solid body work and tricky upper body movement he uses to set up his counters, but I don’t see him having the variety to his game to be able to out think and out box the bigger Lopez. In the semi finals, Khyzhniak and Lopez will square off, and I expect Lopez to look a class above. Khyzhniak is one of the most accomplished fighters in amateur boxing, but stylistically, he’s a brute: constantly moving forward and mauling his opponent with hard shots and using his incredible work rate, conditioning and strength to break his opponent. While this has been very effective at middleweight, Khyzyhniak’s style relies heavily on the physical advantages he had at middleweight, and there is a real question whether or not his success will translate up. Indeed, Kyzyhniak has not looked the same at light heavyweight, struggling at times against big, strong fighters like India’s Sumit. To make matters worse, Khyzyniak’s defense is not particularly good and his footwork is plodding. Given all of this, I expect that Lopez will spend his fight with Khyzhniak landing counters and lighting Khyzyhniak up and should win a clear decision, maybe even a stoppage of some variety.
 
On the other end of the bracket, China’s Tuohetaerbieke Tanglatihan will likely face Kazakhstan’s Nurbek Oralbay in the semi finals. Oralbay and Tuohetaerbieke have faced each other three times before, each fight being incredibly close, with Oralbay up 2-1 in the series. While Oralbay leads the series, I think Tuohetaerbieke should win this time around. Tuohetaerbieke seems to be entering his prime, adding authoritative oomf to his body punches, developing a sneaky overhand right and a pole of a jab. Oralbay is more athletic, flashier and a bit more accurate, but I see Tuohetaerbieke grinding him down in a competitive fight. This will set up the final between Tuohetaerbieke and Lopez, a rematch of their 2023 fight Tuohetaerbieke won (a win which Tuohetaerbieke can credit largely to winning the foot positioning battle in the southpaw/orthodox matchup). This time around I predict Lopez will make the adjustments necessary and come in in better shape to eek out a win and win his third Olympic gold medal.
 
203 lbs (Heavyweight):
Gold: Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (Italy)
Silver: Aybek Oralbay (Kazakhstan)
Bronze: Enmanuel Reyes (Spain), Jack Marley (Ireland)
 
Despite being one of the most competitive divisions in this olympics, the heavyweight division suffers enormously from the seeding of the brackets. Emblematic of this failure is that the tournament second and fourth favorites (Italy’s Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine and Uzbekistan’s Lazizbek Mullojonov, respectively), and the first and third favorites (Cuba’s Julio Cesar La Cruz and the Cuban-Azeri Loren Alfonso) are facing each other in the first round. In the quarterfinals, I’d pick the young Irishman Marley to beat Georgia’s hard hitting Giorgi Kushitashvili. On the other end of Marley’s bracket, Brazil’s Keno Machado will beat the UK’s Patrick Brown and face the winner of the Mouhiidine/Mullojonov fight. Mouhiidine/Mullojonov is a head scratcher to pick, but gun to my head I have to pick Mouhiidine. Mullojonov is fundamentally sound, measures distance well, hits hard and is good at landing counters, but Mouhiidine’s style is simply not a style you can prepare for. Mouhiidine will dance around Mullojonov and his superior speed and wide punch variety will see him take a decision over Mullojonov. Machado, characteristically also a technically sound boxer who works behind a versatile jab and lands well measured counters, will also lose to Mouhiidine in a way similar to Mullojonov. This will set Marley up to face Mouhiidine in the semi finals, where I expect Mouhiidine will confound him and be one step ahead of him (or maybe several) the whole way, dancing around the bewildered Marley through to the finals.
 
On the other end of the bracket Alfonso will face La Cruz in the round of 16. Alfonso is a capable athletic slickster but he isn’t on the level of La Cruz, whom I expect to out box and out fight Alfonso, setting him up for a fight with Kazakhstan’s Aybek Oralbay in the quarter finals. I wouldn’t put Oralbay on the level of a prime La Cruz, but I don’t think La Cruz is at his best anymore and will be picked off by the younger Oralbay. Oralbay’s precision guided right hands, awkward upper body movement and superior hand speed will allow him to set up just enough exchanges with La Cruz that he will win a razor close fight against the aging Cuban legend. This will next set up Oralbay to face Cuban-Spaniard Enmanuel Reyes in the semi finals. This will likely go in a similar direction to what I predict the Oralbay-La Cruz fight will go, but Reyes is slower and less defensively sound than La Cruz, and I suspect he will also find himself at the receiving end of Oralbay’s lightning quick combinations and volume. This will set up the final between Oralbay and Mouhiidine, a rematch of their 2023 matchup, which Mouhiidine won. While I think very highly of Oralbay, and even believe he may be better suited for the pros than Mouhiidine, I don’t see Oralbay having evolved enough to beat Mouhiidine. It will be an eye catching fight, one with lots of explosive movement and creative punches, but ultimately, I don’t see Oralbay being able to pin down Mouhiidine consistently enough. Instead, the fight will go like their last fight, where Mouhiidine danced around Oralbay, winning the battle of hte jabs and continuously interrupting his offensive flow by dashing in, landing punches before Oralbay could react, and getting quickly out of range after. The fight will be incredibly high level, and Oralbay will have nothing to be ashamed of, but Mouhiidine will win his gold clearly.
 
203+ lbs (Super Heavyweight):
Gold: Bakhodir Jalolov (Uzbekistan)
Silver: Delicious Orie (Great Britain)
Bronze: Joshua Edwards (USA), Djamili Aboudou Moindze (France)
 
Before even having begun, the heavyweight division feels like a forgone conclusion. The hard hitting, laser precise Uzbek Bakhodir Jalolov, who won Olympic gold in 2020, is such a significant favorite that the discussion in this Olympic’s heavyweight tournament is who will get silver and bronze. Jalolov will face Australian Teremoana Jnr in the quarterfinals. Teremoana is a very dangerous fighter: he hits extremely hard, is big and strong, works the body well and has awkward timing. That said, the last time Jalolov and Teremoana fought Teremoana was too slow on foot and incapable of winning the foot positioning battle that has befuddled so many orthodox fighters against southpaws, leading to a second round stoppage loss where Jalolov’s missile of a left could not miss. After Teremoana, I suspect that Jalolov will face the talented and athletic American Joshua Edwards in the semi finals. Edwards fights like a classic catch and shoot boxer, reading his opponents range, slipping their shots and landing explosive right hand counters while working the body and maintaining an active jab. Unfortunately for Edwards, he has also faced Jalolov before and lost a clear 3-0 decision, as he was incapable of closing the distance or landing his counter work against the lengthier Jalolov, and I don’t expect much different this time around.
 
The other end of the heavyweight bracket is much more competitive. In the round of 16 the Russian-British Delicious Orie faces Armenia’s Davit Chaloyan. When Chaloyan and Orie squared off at the 2023 European Games, Chaloyan was reduced to following Orie around the ring with the quicker and more athletic Orie landing counters on Chaloyan to a clear win, one which I think he will replicate time time around. Orie will then probably face the Kazakh Kamshybek Kunkabayev. While Kunkabayev is by no means a pushover, I think he’s seen better days and will likely lose to Orie as well in the quarter finals. On the other end of Orie’s part of the bracket are Brazilian Abner Teixeira and Frenchman Djamili Aboudou Moindze. Moindze and Teixeira have fought twice in two razor close fights, splitting their series 1-1. Moindze tends to be the more aggressive of the two and Teixeira moreso the counterpuncher. While this fight really could go either way, I think French judging and Moindze’s increasingly effective and awkward pressure should see him squeak past the bigger Brazilian. This will lead us to a classic French/British derby in the semi finals. While I am personally cheering for my countryman in Moindze, I suspect Orie will be a bit too big and a bit too refined for Moindze to win, barring hometown decision making by the judges. This sets up a final between Jalolov and Orie. Orie’s will certainly provide Jalolov a challenge, but I don’t really see anything Orie has a concrete advantage over Jalolov in. He’s smaller, less hard hitting, less fluid, less accurate, less experienced, doesn’t move as well and will have his signature southpaw advantage, providing Jalolov a clear win (possibly by KO) over Orie and his second Olympic gold.